Next move?
I’ve sometimes wondered what I would do if I couldn’t travel. What would I do for work? What would I do for fun? How would I add value to my life?
Now I know.
While we know beyond a doubt that Covid-19 isn’t the black death and is only mildly dangerous — if that — to a relatively small group of people, our world has still not come to its senses. Scientists have done the studies, the Bill Gates-funded fear mongering initial reports that estimated millions of deaths have been thoroughly debunked, municipalities who artificially boosted death counts have been called out, and even the CDC downgraded their Covid infection fatality rate from the WHO’s 3.4% to a paltry 0.26% — a number that’s looking as if it’s even going to drop lower as the rate of asymptomatic cases that they used was extremely conservative (India, for example, has the IFR at 0.08%, or less deadly than a bad strain of influenza). According to the CDC, the Covid-19 death rate for people under 50 who develop symptoms is a pathetic 1 in 5,000 — and somewhere between 30% and 80% of people are asymptomatic. We now also know that Covid-19 mortality never achieves exponential growth, regardless of preventative measures, so those prolonged lock downs that we’ve been living under … well, they didn’t really do much of anything. On top of that, scientists have found that 40-60% of people actually have preexisting resistance to Sars-Cov-2 — and upwards of 80% of the population may not even be susceptible to it in the first place.
Meanwhile, only 520,000 people worldwide have perished from the disease since it was identified in December, which is small fries when compared to the death tolls of an array of other diseases, such as sepsis, which had killed more than ten times that number over the same period.
We destroyed our country, decimated thousands of small businesses, put millions out of work, and sacrificed the futures of our children for a sham.
However, our governments still hold fast to their original positions, not wanting to relinquish their grips on the hard-ons of absolute power … and nobody knows how long this is going to last.
This leaves those who make their livings traveling in an extremely precarious position. If we can’t travel, we can’t work. What now? Do we just hang out and continue weathering the storm? Do we find a new profession? Do we join the mob and start tearing down statues? (It does seem to be good business calling other people racist these days … although I’m not sure how good “witch hunter” would look on a resume.)
I don’t want to do another job. The thought of starting something new from the ground up and building skills and knowledge used to feel exhilarating. Now it feels nauseating. I’ve come too far to turn back. I also can’t come up with anything else that I’d like doing. I look at other jobs and nothing seems as appealing as “traveling the world writing stories and making videos about whatever I find interesting.”
That said, our cities and countries are opening internally, but what’s the good of that if your meal ticket involves the crossing of borders. I can’t even go back to my home city of Buffalo and cross the border into Canada. Fuck, NY state is even trying to force people from a select list of states (coincidentally all run by the contending political party) to quarantine for two weeks. So what do I do?
I do what travelers have always done: you look at a map and find the open route. It’s the same game we’ve always played … albeit with a few less options.
So I pull up the IATA Covid-19 travel regulations map last night and dove in. They divide the world into four categories: totally restrictive, partially restrictive, not restrictive, and under review — basically politically remote countries that nobody knows anything about.
I’m not going to bother with any country that is in the first two categories — I’m not flying somewhere just to be quarantined for two weeks and I definitely don’t want to find myself Trevor’ed somewhere. The regulations of many countries are currently complicated and seem to be rapidly in flux, and few travelers place bets on immigration officials keeping up to date with their own rules. Even if the rules were known and followed, I’m not willing to deposit $3,000 into a foreign bank, undergo a forced Covid test, or wear a fucking tracking device like I’m a criminal just to go to another country.
Read this thread:
I’ve landed in Hong Kong after flying from Paris CDG, via London Heathrow. I now have to wait ~8 hours before I get my #COVID19 test results and thus have ample time to tweet about my experience. pic.twitter.com/jCDPuwrTzL
— Laurel Chor (@laurelchor) May 14, 2020
No way I’m doing that.
So what does that leave me with?
Mexico, Haiti, Serbia, Kosovo, North Macedonia, Ukraine, Turkey, Afghanistan, and Egypt just opened up as I was writing this.
So there are places to go, but the question is where to go next? Travelers rarely plot their journeys one move at a time, but rather envision a progression of stops spanning a region. So I can get into Haiti, but then what? I can’t go to the Dominican Republic; all of the other Caribbean islands are closed. Sure, I can go to Serbia, but my next moves from there are limited to Kosovo and Macedonia — which would be cool but where to after that?
On the other hand, desperate times require alternate strategies. Travel in 2020 is a seller’s market — us paupers need to take what we can get. Also, as time goes on more and more countries will, theoretically, open their doors.
So what am I going to do? Nearly all of the countries that I’ve been focused on are still closed, so I will need to start up a new project … what am I saying? There is only one clear choice: Mexico.
Mexico is a giant, diverse, engaging country that I have spent extended amounts of time in between 2010 and 2012. The problem is that I haven’t written about the place in years. I have no journalistic connections there. I would be starting from scratch.
But Serbia –> Kosovo –> Macedonia would work too. I’ve covered that region recently and could probably pick up where I left off. My apprehension is how much longer they can maintain their open positions. Politicians in Serbia are already feeling the heat for reopening, and going there now seems to be a precarious move. Trevor is there now and is enjoying his newfound freedom … but how long will it be before we have a new “trapped in …” series coming from him?
But anywhere is probably better than where I’m stuck now. It’s difficult to live for four months under authoritarian decrees and smile happily at a place. New York City is a luxury — it’s nothing that anyone really needs.
So what’s your take, dear readers, where should I go next?
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About the Author: VBJ
I am the founder and editor of Vagabond Journey. I’ve been traveling the world since 1999, through 91 countries. I am the author of the book, Ghost Cities of China and have written for The Guardian, Forbes, Bloomberg, The Diplomat, the South China Morning Post, and other publications. VBJ has written 3723 posts on Vagabond Journey. Contact the author.
VBJ is currently in: New York City
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July 2, 2020, 2:32 pm
I love that ‘to be Trevor’ed’ is now a verb!
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July 2, 2020, 7:15 pm
I would hit up Mexico. I think that would be a good place to be. Lots to explore, you speak the language and it seems to be a traveller’s paradise in terms of cheap food, etc.
I am still pessimistic that things are going to open up in a timely manner. I am starting to worry/wonder if the majority of people really want to open back up or actually enjoy sitting in their houses watching Netflix all day and not feeling guilty about it.
We are literally watching the majority of people being programmed every single day…it’s crazy.
Personally I hope you go to Mexico, I have several friends and it would give me an excuse to go when the world opens up sometime in late 2024…..or if Nov 4 this year if a certain election goes a certain way.
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July 2, 2020, 10:01 pm
You know that I disagree with your numbers. I’m still sticking with what I had in February, 0.5% to 1.0% death rate and every real study backs that up, but I’m not here to argue about that. Only time will tell if I am right or wrong. What I do agree with you about is that there is no rhyme or reason why everything is shut down. It’s not deadly enough for the carnage that was caused. Moreover, vitamins, supplements, masks, and hand washing are enough to dramatically reduce your chance of death. Again, that’s been my mantra since January and February.
But instead we have a world shut down and for what reason? I don’t know. It’s bullshit. I think there is something else going on and we are all being fed a line. Lots of possibilities but here are two scenarios. 1) The disease is not very deadly but causes hidden damages that last a lifetime and they know this because they engineered it and that’s why they are so scared. 2) They want to flex their muscles over us. I’m sure you can come up with more possible scenarios. The point we agree on is that they haven’t articulated a good reason to shut down everything like they have when simple measures would have been quite effective.
And that means we are all messed up. And let me digress. Have you applied for an EIDL grant? You fill out the form at the SBA EIDL grant page(Google it) and make sure you mark the box that you want to get a grant(it’s a loan and a grant). Two days later they will put a $1000 grant in your bank account(per employee). You can also choose to accept a loan or not if they offer it to you but it’s a 30 year repayment so the payments so small. I didn’t take the loan but I got the grant. $1000 isn’t much but it buys equipment.
And I guess that is about all we can do right now is to get our stuff together and prepare. I’m teaching my 7 year old daughter coding because she enjoys it. My 16 year is making videos. I’m trying to write a book. You get the idea.
I know that there will be an opening. If you are paying attention to the map, it is slowly starting to change colors signifying some limited amount of reopening. I look at South America. I suspect by late August it will be open much more. I think returning to the days of travel we had before may take time, but it will come back to some degree I think.
Me? i was supposed to start traveling again this last March, April and through the summer. That didn’t happen and now my family is rethinking everything. We might travel in the US, we might go to Mexico, we might to South America as soon as it opens. Two days ago, my oldest son (18) joined the US Army. He is now in basic training. He might actually do more traveling than I will over the next year!
One last thing in this meandering comment. I know you were using another service for your other site to build subscriptions to your content. Have you checked out the Ghost Blogging platform? You can self host it and use their membership plugin that interfaces with Stripe for selling subscriptions. I haven’t implemented it yet but I will be using it in the future. The demos look good for it. Just an idea. I think you have a few of those sites in you. Maybe even a podcast for you? You are very talented.
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July 3, 2020, 12:56 pm
Mexico. There is still the 4-Color Traffic Light System: Red/Orange/Yellow/Green. Some States are safer (and have fewer restrictions) … Mexico City and Baja California are Red, for instance. There are 5 criteria to pass, i.e. if any one of those is Red then the whole State is labeled Red (for Contagion risk).
I am in (“Yellow”) Oaxaca, a Walking Town and it’s uncrowded with gradually lifting restrictions — I am in a WiFi Coffee Roaster, tapping away, seated, staff very solicitous, recently opened up. Restaurants (some) are serving, but in Patios outdoors. Most people wear masks. Buses are running. Mercados and Walmart stores are open, gradually more Street Vendors. I am beginning to see artesan shopping re-opening. Mexico in the new normal. Overall “Casual”, also rents are cheap. Cost of Living, favorable. Mile-High, good climate.
Anyway, Queretaro/Oaxaca. Can’t go wrong.
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July 4, 2020, 1:46 am
Thank-you for this excellent article. I say Mexico and then as the countries in that part of the world open up you expand your range south. My only concern is you getting back to your family if things close down again in September ( “the second wave of covid, they are trying to implement”) as many are predicting. My thought is give to give up the apartment and take the entire family to Mexico with you so that you are all together no matter what. Additionally as your wife is a teacher she can homeschool the kids so they will not loose any ground academically.
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July 19, 2020, 5:58 pm
Sorry, Wade. Got to disagree with you on the dangerousness of Covid 19. Two friends have died of it before their time, a neighbor who I didn’t know was the first to go on Montreal island, and a youngish friend (43 or so) was desperately ill for four weeks and now has continuing long problems. This is not your usual seasonal influenza. And that’s just in one corner of the world which over all hasn’t done too badly so far.
You may rightly take to task how some governments have responded. In contrast to the US, the Canadian government stepped up to the plate immediately with a the Canadian Emergency Response Benefit that put $2000 a month in the pockets of people (including those in the gig economy) who’d made $5000 in the previous 12 months. The initial plan was for 12 weeks, but it has been extended. That has made an enormous difference in how folks have been able to weather the storm, and is setting the stage for a recovery that should be rapid and robust.
What this crisis has shone is the fault lines in society, all societies. Where I live there have been far too many old folks die in “care” homes or in crowded housings. Those are problems that are going to have to be addressed down the line.
In the meantime, I keep masking up…
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